Is Scotland Walking in the Right Direction? A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Trends in Walking by Socioeconomic Status.

BACKGROUND: Walking is a key target behavior for promoting population health. This paper charts the 30-year history of walking policy in Scotland. We assess whether population walking levels among adults in Scotland have changed in recent years and identify the characteristics of those least likely to report any walking. METHODS: We pooled 9 years (2012-2019 and 2021) of data from adult (≥16 y) respondents of the Scottish Health Survey (n = 41,470). The outcomes of interest were the percentage reporting (1) any walking and (2) any walking with an average pace that is of at least moderate intensity. We also investigated the contribution of walking to total nonoccupational moderate to vigorous physical activity. We used linear and logistic regressions to test linear trends over time and to identify inequalities by age, sex, and the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile. RESULTS: There was an increase in all measures of walking over the period 2012-2021; for example, the percentage reporting any walking increased by 7 percentage points (81.4%-88.4%). Inequalities still exist by age, sex, and the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation but have not grown over time. Inequalities by sex and age are most pronounced in the least affluent Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles; less affluent older women are least likely to report any walking. CONCLUSIONS: Scotland appears to be walking in the right direction. Surveillance data support a positive trend after decades of policy and promotion efforts. The policies do not appear to be exacerbating existing inequalities, but narrowing them will require more concentrated efforts.

The Impact of Removing the 10-Minute Bout Requirement and of Different Survey Administration Methods on National Physical Activity Estimates in Austria.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring survey methods, as well as movement recommendations, evolves over time. These changes can make trend observations over time difficult. The aim of this study was to examine the differences between 2 computer-assisted survey administration methods and the effect of the omission of the 10-minute minimum bout requirement in physical activity (PA) questions on PA outcomes. METHODS: We used data from the second Austrian PA Surveillance System for 2998 adults (18-64 y), applying computer-assisted personal interviewing and computer-assisted web interviewing. Within the computer-assisted web interviewing sample only, we added PA questions without the 10-minute requirement. Quantile and logistic regressions were applied. RESULTS: Between computer-assisted web interviewing and computer-assisted personal interviewing, within the computer-assisted personal interviewing sample, we found lower PA estimates in the leisure domain and work and household domain, but not in the travel domain, and no significant difference in the proportion of people meeting the PA recommendations. In all 3 PA domains, the median minutes did not differ when assessed with or without the 10-minute requirement. However, the percentage participation in the travel domain and work and household domain performing >0 minutes per week PA was higher when there was no 10-minute requirement. The proportion of people meeting the Austrian aerobic recommendation for adults when computed with or without the 10-minute requirement did not differ. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the omission of the 10-minute requirement does not seem to result in marked differences in PA estimates or the proportion of adults meeting the recommendations.

Observational and genetic associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and cancer: a UK Biobank and international consortia study.

BACKGROUND: The association of fitness with cancer risk is not clear. METHODS: We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of lung, colorectal, endometrial, breast, and prostate cancer in a subset of UK Biobank participants who completed a submaximal fitness test in 2009-12 (N = 72,572). We also investigated relationships using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method. RESULTS: After a median of 11 years of follow-up, 4290 cancers of interest were diagnosed. A 3.5 ml O2⋅min-1⋅kg-1 total-body mass increase in fitness (equivalent to 1 metabolic equivalent of task (MET), approximately 0.5 standard deviation (SD)) was associated with lower risks of endometrial (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.73-0.89), colorectal (0.94, 0.90-0.99), and breast cancer (0.96, 0.92-0.99). In MR analyses, a 0.5 SD increase in genetically predicted O2⋅min-1⋅kg-1 fat-free mass was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86-0.98). After adjusting for adiposity, both the observational and genetic associations were attenuated. DISCUSSION: Higher fitness levels may reduce risks of endometrial, colorectal, and breast cancer, though relationships with adiposity are complex and may mediate these relationships. Increasing fitness, including via changes in body composition, may be an effective strategy for cancer prevention.

Replacing device-measured sedentary time with physical activity is associated with lower risk of coronary heart disease regardless of genetic risk.

BACKGROUND: Excess sedentary time (ST) is recognized as an important modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, whether the associations of genetic susceptibility with CHD incidence can be modified by replacing wearable-device-measured ST with physical activity (PA) is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations of wearable-device-measured ST replaced by PA with incident CHD across strata of genetic susceptibility. METHODS: This study included 77,500 White British (57% female) with valid wrist-worn accelerometry and without prevalent CHD/stroke from UK Biobank. Genetic susceptibility to CHD was quantified through weighted polygenic risk scores for CHD based on 300 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Wrist-worn accelerometer data were used to derive ST, light PA, and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). RESULTS: Reallocation of 60 min/day of ST into the same amount of MVPA was associated with approximately 9% lower relative risk of CHD for all participants and across strata of genetic risk: replacement of 1 min/day of ST associated with <1% lower relative risk of CHD. No evidence of interaction (p: 0.784) was found between genetic risk and ST for CHD risk. Reallocating 60 min/day of ST into the same MVPA time was associated with greater absolute CHD risk reductions at high genetic risk (0.27%) versus low genetic risk (0.15%). CONCLUSIONS: Replacing any amount of ST with an equal amount of MVPA time is associated with a lower relative risk of CHD, irrespective of genetic susceptibility to CHD. Reductions in CHD absolute risk for replacing ST with MVPA are greater at high genetic risk versus low genetic risk.

Non-occupational physical activity and risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and mortality outcomes: a dose-response meta-analysis of large prospective studies.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the dose-response associations between non-occupational physical activity and several chronic disease and mortality outcomes in the general adult population. DESIGN: Systematic review and cohort-level dose-response meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and reference lists of published studies. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Prospective cohort studies with (1) general population samples >10 000 adults, (2) ≥3 physical activity categories, and (3) risk measures and CIs for all-cause mortality or incident total cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, total cancer and site-specific cancers (head and neck, myeloid leukaemia, myeloma, gastric cardia, lung, liver, endometrium, colon, breast, bladder, rectum, oesophagus, prostate, kidney). RESULTS: 196 articles were included, covering 94 cohorts with >30 million participants. The evidence base was largest for all-cause mortality (50 separate results; 163 415 543 person-years, 811 616 events), and incidence of cardiovascular disease (37 results; 28 884 209 person-years, 74 757 events) and cancer (31 results; 35 500 867 person-years, 185 870 events). In general, higher activity levels were associated with lower risk of all outcomes. Differences in risk were greater between 0 and 8.75 marginal metabolic equivalent of task-hours per week (mMET-hours/week) (equivalent to the recommended 150 min/week of moderate-to-vigorous aerobic physical activity), with smaller marginal differences in risk above this level to 17.5 mMET-hours/week, beyond which additional differences were small and uncertain. Associations were stronger for all-cause (relative risk (RR) at 8.75 mMET-hours/week: 0.69, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.73) and cardiovascular disease (RR at 8.75 mMET-hours/week: 0.71, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.77) mortality than for cancer mortality (RR at 8.75 mMET-hours/week: 0.85, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.89). If all insufficiently active individuals had achieved 8.75 mMET-hours/week, 15.7% (95% CI 13.1 to 18.2) of all premature deaths would have been averted. CONCLUSIONS: Inverse non-linear dose-response associations suggest substantial protection against a range of chronic disease outcomes from small increases in non-occupational physical activity in inactive adults. PROSPERO registration number CRD42018095481.

Quantifying the Relationship Between Physical Activity Energy Expenditure and Incident Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study of Device-Measured Activity in 90,096 Adults.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between accelerometer-derived physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a cohort of middle-aged adults and within subgroups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were from 90,096 UK Biobank participants without prevalent diabetes (mean 62 years of age; 57% women) who wore a wrist accelerometer for 7 days. PAEE was derived from wrist acceleration using a population-specific method validated against doubly labeled water. Logistic regressions were used to assess associations between PAEE, its underlying intensity, and incident T2D, ascertained using hospital episode and mortality data up to November 2020. Models were progressively adjusted for demographic, lifestyle factors, and BMI. RESULTS: The association between PAEE and T2D was approximately linear (n = 2,018 events). We observed 19% (95% CI 17-21) lower odds of T2D per 5 kJ · kg-1 · day-1 in PAEE without adjustment for BMI and 11% (9-13) with BMI adjustment. The association was stronger in men than women and weaker in those with obesity and higher genetic susceptibility to obesity. There was no evidence of effect modification by genetic susceptibility to T2D or insulin resistance. For a given level of PAEE, odds of T2D were lower among those engaging in more moderate-to-vigorous activity. CONCLUSIONS: There was a strong linear relationship between PAEE and incident T2D. A difference in PAEE equivalent to an additional daily 20-min brisk walk was associated with 19% lower odds of T2D. The association was broadly similar across population subgroups, supporting physical activity for diabetes prevention in the whole population.

Physical activity volume, intensity, and incident cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: The interplay between physical activity (PA) volume and intensity is poorly understood in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study aimed to investigate the role of PA intensity, over and above volume, in relation to incident CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were from 88 412 UK Biobank middle-aged adults (58% women) without prevalent CVD who wore accelerometers on their dominant wrist for 7 days, from which we estimated total PA energy expenditure (PAEE) using population-specific validation. Cox proportional hazards regressions modelled associations between PAEE (kJ/kg/day) and PA intensity (%MVPA; the fraction of PAEE accumulated from moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA) with incident CVD (ischaemic heart disease or cerebrovascular disease), adjusted for potential confounders. There were 4068 CVD events during 584 568 person-years of follow-up (median 6.8 years). Higher PAEE and higher %MVPA (adjusted for PAEE) were associated with lower rates of incident CVD. In interaction analyses, CVD rates were 14% (95% confidence interval: 5-23%) lower when MVPA accounted for 20% rather than 10% of 15 kJ/kg/d PAEE; equivalent to converting a 14 min stroll into a brisk 7 min walk. CVD rates did not differ significantly between values of PAEE when the %MVPA was fixed at 10%. However, the lowest CVD rates were observed for combinations of both higher PAEE and %MVPA. CONCLUSION: Reductions in CVD risk may be achievable through higher PA volume and intensity, with the role of moderately intense PA appearing particularly important. This supports multiple approaches or strategies to PA participation, some of which may be more practical or appealing to different individuals.

Association of Accelerometer-Measured Sedentary Accumulation Patterns With Incident Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, and All-Cause Mortality.

Background Emerging evidence suggests accruing sedentary behavior (SB) in relatively more prolonged periods may convey additional cardiometabolic risks, but few studies have examined prospective outcomes. We examined the association of SB accumulation patterns with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and all-cause mortality (ACM). Methods and Results Data were from 7671 EPIC-Norfolk (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk) cohort middle- to older-aged adults who wore accelerometers on the right hip for 4 to 7 days. Cox proportional hazards regression modeled associations between 2 measures of SB accumulation and incident CVD, cancer, and ACM. These were usual SB bout duration (the midpoint of each individual's SB accumulation curve, fitted using nonlinear regression) and alpha (hybrid measure of bout frequency and duration, with higher values indicating relatively shorter bouts and fewer long bouts). Models were adjusted for potential confounders, then further for 24-hour time-use compositions. During mean follow-up time of 6.4 years, 339 ACM, 1106 CVD, and 516 cancer events occurred. Elevated rates of incident cancer and ACM were seen with more prolonged SB accumulation (lower alpha, higher usual SB bout duration) but not CVD. For usual SB bout duration and alpha, respectively, the confounder-adjusted hazard ratios per SD of the exposure were 1.12 (95% CI, 1.02-1.23) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.79-0.98) with incident cancer and 1.16 (95% CI, 1.07-1.26) and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.72-0.89) with ACM (all P<0.05). Further adjustment for 24-hour time use weakened associations with ACM for usual bout duration (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.97-1.16; P=0.209) and partially for alpha (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.77-0.99; P=0.029). Conclusions Accruing SB in longer bout durations was associated with higher rates of incident cancer and ACM but not with incident CVD, with some evidence of direct SB accumulation effects independent of 24-hour time use. Findings provide some support for considering SB accumulation as an adjunct target of messaging to "sit less and move more."

Association Between Physical Activity and Risk of Depression: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: Depression is the leading cause of mental health-related disease burden and may be reduced by physical activity, but the dose-response relationship between activity and depression is uncertain. Objective: To systematically review and meta-analyze the dose-response association between physical activity and incident depression from published prospective studies of adults. Data Sources: PubMed, SCOPUS, Web of Science, PsycINFO, and the reference lists of systematic reviews retrieved by a systematic search up to December 11, 2020, with no language limits. The date of the search was November 12, 2020. Study Selection: We included prospective cohort studies reporting physical activity at 3 or more exposure levels and risk estimates for depression with 3000 or more adults and 3 years or longer of follow-up. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Data extraction was completed independently by 2 extractors and cross-checked for errors. A 2-stage random-effects dose-response meta-analysis was used to synthesize data. Study-specific associations were estimated using generalized least-squares regression and the pooled association was estimated by combining the study-specific coefficients using restricted maximum likelihood. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcome of interest was depression, including (1) presence of major depressive disorder indicated by self-report of physician diagnosis, registry data, or diagnostic interviews and (2) elevated depressive symptoms established using validated cutoffs for a depressive screening instrument. Results: Fifteen studies comprising 191 130 participants and 2 110 588 person-years were included. An inverse curvilinear dose-response association between physical activity and depression was observed, with steeper association gradients at lower activity volumes; heterogeneity was large and significant (I2 = 74%; P < .001). Relative to adults not reporting any activity, those accumulating half the recommended volume of physical activity (4.4 marginal metabolic equivalent task hours per week [mMET-h/wk]) had 18% (95% CI, 13%-23%) lower risk of depression. Adults accumulating the recommended volume of 8.8 mMET hours per week had 25% (95% CI, 18%-32%) lower risk with diminishing potential benefits and higher uncertainty observed beyond that exposure level. There were diminishing additional potential benefits and greater uncertainty at higher volumes of physical activity. Based on an estimate of exposure prevalences among included cohorts, if less active adults had achieved the current physical activity recommendations, 11.5% (95% CI, 7.7%-15.4%) of depression cases could have been prevented. Conclusions and Relevance: This systematic review and meta-analysis of associations between physical activity and depression suggests significant mental health benefits from being physically active, even at levels below the public health recommendations. Health practitioners should therefore encourage any increase in physical activity to improve mental health.

Physical activity intensity profiles associated with cardiometabolic risk in middle-aged to older men and women.

Accelerometers provide detailed data about physical activity (PA) across the full intensity spectrum. However, when examining associations with health, results are often aggregated to only a few summary measures [e.g. time spent "sedentary" or "moderate-to-vigorous" intensity PA]. Using multivariate pattern analysis, which can handle collinear exposure variables, we examined associations between the full PA intensity spectrum and cardiometabolic risk (CMR) in a population-based sample of middle-aged to older adults. Participants (n = 3660; mean ± SD age = 69 ± 8y and BMI = 26.7 ± 4.2 kg/m2; 55% female) from the EPIC-Norfolk study (UK) with valid accelerometry (ActiGraph-GT1M) data were included. We used multivariate pattern analysis with partial least squares regression to examine cross-sectional multivariate associations (r) across the full PA intensity spectrum [minutes/day at 0-5000 counts-per-minute (cpm); 5 s epoch] with a continuous CMR score (reflecting waist, blood pressure, lipid, and glucose metabolism). Models were sex-stratified and adjusted for potential confounders. There was a positive (detrimental) association between PA and CMR at 0-12 cpm (maximally-adjusted r = 0.08 (95%CI 0.06-0.10). PA was negatively (favourably) associated with CMR at all intensities above 13 cpm ranging between r = -0.09 (0.07-0.12) at 800-999 cpm and r = -0.14 (0.11-0.16) at 75-99 and 4000-4999 cpm. The strongest favourable associations were from 50 to 800 cpm (r = 0.10-0.12) in men, but from ≥2500 cpm (r = 0.18-0.20) in women; with higher proportions of model explained variance for women (R2 = 7.4% vs. 2.3%). Most of the PA intensity spectrum was beneficially associated with CMR in middle-aged to older adults, even at intensities lower than what has traditionally been considered "sedentary" or "light-intensity" activity. This supports encouragement of PA at almost any intensity in this age-group.

Joint associations between objectively measured physical activity volume and intensity with body fatness: the Fenland study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) represents the total volume of all physical activity. This can be accumulated as different underlying intensity profiles. Although volume and intensity have been studied in isolation, less is known about their joint association with health. We examined this association with body fatness in a population-based sample of middle-aged British adults. METHODS: In total, 6148 women and 5320 men from the Fenland study with objectively measured physical activity from individually calibrated combined heart rate and movement sensing and DXA-derived body fat percentage (BF%) were included in the analyses. We used linear and compositional isocaloric substitution analysis to examine associations of PAEE and its intensity composition with body fatness. Sex-stratified models were adjusted for socio-economic and dietary covariates. RESULTS: PAEE was inversely associated with body fatness in women (beta = -0.16 (95% CI: -0.17; -0.15) BF% per kJ day-1 kg-1) and men (beta = -0.09 (95% CI: -0.10; -0.08) BF% per kJ day-1 kg-1). Intensity composition was significantly associated with body fatness, beyond that of PAEE; the reallocation of energy to vigorous physical activity (>6 METs) from other intensities was associated with less body fatness, whereas light activity (1.5-3 METs) was positively associated. However, light activity was the main driver of overall PAEE volume, and the relative importance of intensity was marginal compared to that of volume; the difference between PAEE in tertile 1 and 2 in women was associated with 3 percentage-point lower BF%. Higher vigorous physical activity in the same group to the maximum observed value was associated with 1 percentage-point lower BF%. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, population-based cohort study with objective measures, PAEE was inversely associated with body fatness. Beyond the PAEE association, greater levels of intense activity were also associated with lower body fatness. This contribution was marginal relative to PAEE. These findings support current guidelines for physical activity which emphasise that any movement is beneficial, rather than specific activity intensity or duration targets.

Population level physical activity before and during the first national COVID-19 lockdown: A nationally representative repeat cross-sectional study of 5 years of Active Lives data in England.

BACKGROUND: To limit the spread of COVID-19 in March 2020, the population of England was instructed to stay home, leaving only for essential shopping, health-care, work, or exercise. The impact on population activity behaviours is not clear. We describe changes in duration and types of activity undertaken by adults ≥16 years in England between March and May 2016-19 and 2020, by socio-demographic strata. METHODS: Using nationally representative data collected between November 2015 and May 2020 by the Sport England Active Lives Surveys (n=726,257) we assessed trends in amount and type of non-occupational moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Using data from n=74,430 mid-April to mid-May respondents, we then estimated the odds ratios of reporting any activity in the four-week recall period in 2020 compared to 2016-19. Gamma regressions estimated the mean ratios (MR) of duration amongst those reporting any activity in 2020 compared to 2016-19. FINDINGS: Population activity declined substantially after the restrictions were introduced. Compared to 2016-19 levels, the odds of reporting any activity in 2020 were 30% lower (95% confidence interval (CI) 26-34%). The largest declines were amongst non-white ethnicities, the youngest and oldest age groups, and the unemployed; no socio-demographic subgroup had higher odds. Amongst those undertaking activity, weekly duration was similar in the two periods (MR 0.99, 95%CI (0.96-1.01%)). The odds of participating in walking for leisure and gardening were 11% (6-16%) and 15% (9-21%) higher, respectively, whereas the odds for team and racket sport and walking for travel participation were 76% (73-79%) and 66% (64-68%) lower, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Restrictions introduced in Spring 2020 likely reduced physical activity levels in England. The magnitude of the declines were not uniform by demographic groups or by activity type, which future policies should consider. FUNDING: TS, KW, SJS, and SB are supported by UK Medical Research Council [grant numbers MC_UU_00006/4 and MC_UU_12015/3] and SB is supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre in Cambridge (IS-BRC-1215-20014).

Health, environmental and distributional impacts of cycling uptake: The model underlying the Propensity to Cycle tool for England and Wales.

INTRODUCTION: The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) is a widely used free, open source and publicly available tool for modelling cycling uptake and corresponding health and carbon impacts in England and Wales. In this paper we present the methods for our new individual-level modelling representing all commuters in England and Wales. METHODS: Scenario commuter cycling potential in the PCT is modelled as a function of route distance and hilliness between home and work. Our new individual-level approach has allowed us to create an additional "Near Market" scenario where age, gender, ethnicity, car ownership and area level deprivation also affect an individual's likelihood of switching to cycling. For this and other scenarios, we calculate the carbon benefits of cycling uptake based on the trip distance and previous mode, while health benefits are additionally affected by hilliness and baseline average mortality risk. This allows the estimation of how health and carbon benefits differ by demographic group as well as by scenario. RESULTS: While cycle commuting in England and Wales is demographically skewed towards men and white people, women and people from ethnic minorities have greater cycling potential based on route distance and hilliness. Benefits from cycling uptake are distributed differently again. For example, while increasing female cycling mode share is good for equity, each additional female cyclist generates a smaller average health and carbon benefit than a male cyclist. This is based on women's lower baseline mortality risk, shorter commute travel distances, and lower propensity to commute by car than men. CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated a new approach to modelling that allows for more sophisticated and nuanced assessment of cycling uptake and subsequent benefits, under different scenarios. Health and carbon are increasingly incorporated into appraisal of active travel schemes, valuing important outcomes. However, especially with better representation of demographic factors, this can act as a barrier to equity goals.

Cardiorespiratory fitness assessment using risk-stratified exercise testing and dose-response relationships with disease outcomes.

Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is associated with mortality and cardiovascular disease, but assessing CRF in the population is challenging. Here we develop and validate a novel framework to estimate CRF (as maximal oxygen consumption, VO2max) from heart rate response to low-risk personalised exercise tests. We apply the method to examine associations between CRF and health outcomes in the UK Biobank study, one of the world's largest and most inclusive studies of CRF, showing that risk of all-cause mortality is 8% lower (95%CI 5-11%, 2670 deaths among 79,981 participants) and cardiovascular mortality is 9% lower (95%CI 4-14%, 854 deaths) per 1-metabolic equivalent difference in CRF. Associations obtained with the novel validated CRF estimation method are stronger than those obtained using previous methodology, suggesting previous methods may have underestimated the importance of fitness for human health.

Is occupational physical activity associated with mortality in UK Biobank?

BACKGROUND: Current physical activity guidelines do not distinguish between activity accumulated in different behavioural domains but some studies suggest that occupational physical activity (OPA) may not confer health benefits and could even be detrimental. The purpose of this study was to investigate associations between OPA and mortality outcomes. METHODS: From baseline (2006-2010), 460,901 UK Biobank participants (aged 40-69 years) were followed for a median 12.0 (IQR: 11.3-12.7) years. OPA was categorised by cross-tabulating degree of manual work and walking/standing work amongst those in paid employment (n = 267,765), and combined with categories of occupational status for those not in paid employment (n = 193,136). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate sex-stratified hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for mortality from all causes, CVD, and cancer by occupational group, and for working hours/week and non-occupational physical activity stratified by occupational group. Models included adjustment for age and a range of lifestyle, socio-economic and health-related covariates. RESULTS: During 5,449,989 person-years of follow-up, 28,740 deaths occurred. Compared to those reporting no heavy manual or walking/standing work (e.g. sedentary office workers) and adjusting for covariates, retirement was associated with lower mortality in women (HR = 0.62, CI: 0.53-0.72) and men (HR = 0.80, CI: 0.71-0.90), whereas unemployment was associated with higher mortality in men only (HR = 1.24, CI: 1.07-1.45). Within the working population, there was no evidence of differences in all-cause, CVD or cancer mortality by OPA group when comparing those reporting higher levels of OPA to the lowest OPA reference group for both women and men. Working < 35 h/week versus 35-40 h/week was associated with lower mortality in women (HR = 0.85, CI: 0.79-0.92) and men (HR = 0.83, CI: 0.78-0.89), with no interaction by OPA. Non-occupational physical activity was associated with lower mortality in working women (HR = 0.89 per 5 kJ/day/kg, CI: 0.84-0.95) and men (HR = 0.87 per 5 kJ/day/kg, CI: 0.84-0.91), with no interaction by OPA group. CONCLUSIONS: Jobs classified as higher levels of OPA may not be as active as reported, or the types of physical activity performed in those jobs are not health-enhancing. Irrespective of OPA category or employment status, non-occupational physical activity appears to provide health benefits.

Levels of domain-specific physical activity at work, in the household, for travel and for leisure among 327 789 adults from 104 countries.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the country-level absolute and relative contributions of physical activity at work and in the household, for travel, and during leisure-time to total moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). METHODS: We used data collected between 2002 and 2019 from 327 789 participants across 104 countries and territories (n=24 low, n=34 lower-middle, n=30 upper-middle, n=16 high-income) from all six World Health Organization (WHO) regions. We calculated mean min/week of work/household, travel and leisure MVPA and compared their relative contributions to total MVPA using Global Physical Activity Questionnaire data. We compared patterns by country, sex and age group (25-44 and 45-64 years). RESULTS: Mean MVPA in work/household, travel and leisure domains across the 104 countries was 950 (IQR 618-1198), 327 (190-405) and 104 (51-131) min/week, respectively. Corresponding relative contributions to total MVPA were 52% (IQR 44%-63%), 36% (25%-45%) and 12% (4%-15%), respectively. Work/household was the highest contributor in 80 countries; travel in 23; leisure in just one. In both absolute and relative terms, low-income countries tended to show higher work/household (1233 min/week, 57%) and lower leisure MVPA levels (72 min/week, 4%). Travel MVPA duration was higher in low-income countries but there was no obvious pattern in the relative contributions. Women tended to have relatively less work/household and more travel MVPA; age groups were generally similar. CONCLUSION: In the largest domain-specific physical activity study to date, we found considerable country-level variation in how MVPA is accumulated. Such information is essential to inform national and global policy and future investments to provide opportunities to be active, accounting for country context.

Wearable-device-measured physical activity and future health risk.

Use of wearable devices that monitor physical activity is projected to increase more than fivefold per half-decade1. We investigated how device-based physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) and different intensity profiles were associated with all-cause mortality. We used a network harmonization approach to map dominant-wrist acceleration to PAEE in 96,476 UK Biobank participants (mean age 62 years, 56% female). We also calculated the fraction of PAEE accumulated from moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA). Over the median 3.1-year follow-up period (302,526 person-years), 732 deaths were recorded. Higher PAEE was associated with a lower hazard of all-cause mortality for a constant fraction of MVPA (for example, 21% (95% confidence interval 4-35%) lower hazard for 20 versus 15 kJ kg-1 d-1 PAEE with 10% from MVPA). Similarly, a higher MVPA fraction was associated with a lower hazard when PAEE remained constant (for example, 30% (8-47%) lower hazard when 20% versus 10% of a fixed 15 kJ kg-1 d-1 PAEE volume was from MVPA). Our results show that higher volumes of PAEE are associated with reduced mortality rates, and achieving the same volume through higher-intensity activity is associated with greater reductions than through lower-intensity activity. The linkage of device-measured activity to energy expenditure creates a framework for using wearables for personalized prevention.

Use of the prevented fraction for the population to determine deaths averted by existing prevalence of physical activity: a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Disease and mortality burdens of unhealthy lifestyle behaviours are often reported. In contrast, the positive narrative around the burdens that an existing behaviour have averted is rarely acknowledged. We aimed to estimate the prevented fraction for the population (PFP) for premature mortality averted by physical activity on a global scale. METHODS: In this descriptive study, we obtained previously published data on physical activity prevalence (2001-16) and relative risks of all-cause mortality for 168 countries. We combined the data in Monte-Carlo simulations to estimate country-specific, mean PFP values, corresponding to percentage of mortality averted, and their 95% CIs. High prevented fractions indicated an increased proportion of deaths averted due to physical activity. Using mortality data for all people in a country aged 40-74 years, we estimated the number of premature deaths averted for all adults and by gender. We present the median and range of the prevented fractions globally, by WHO region, and by World Bank income classification. FINDINGS: The global median PFP was 15·0% (range 6·6-20·5), conservatively equating to 3·9 million (95% CI 2·5-5·6) premature deaths averted annually. The African region had the highest median prevented fraction (16·6% [range 12·1-20·5]) and the Americas had the lowest (13·1% [10·8-16·6]). Low-income countries tended to have higher prevented fractions (group median 17·9% [12·3-20·5]) than high-income countries (14·1% [6·6-17·8]). Globally, the median prevented fraction was higher for men (16·0% [7·8-20·7] than women (14·1% [5·0-20·4]). INTERPRETATION: Existing physical activity prevalence has contributed to averting premature mortality across all countries. PFP has utility as an advocacy tool to promote healthy lifestyle behaviours. By making the case of what has been achieved, the prevented fraction can show the value of current investment and services, which might be conducive to political support. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, Heart Foundation Australia.